Furthermore, using the above Bitcoin Halving table, we asked ChatGPT to calculate the potential jump in Bitcoin after the 2024 halving. Utilizing Arithmetic and Geometric Progression, respectively, ChatGPT calculates the Bitcoin price prediction for 2024 post-halving to be a 290% bitcoin future and 4,160% jump. Firstly, at CoinPedia, we’re feeling optimistic about Bitcoin’s price going up. In simple terms, every four years, the number of new Bitcoins entering the market gets cut in half. Consequently, this usually increases the price because there’s less supply.
Front-month futures contracts typically trade higher than the current spot price, a condition known as contango. Contango represents market expectations that asset prices are headed higher https://www.tokenexus.com/ in the near term. Despite the inconsistencies in the price discovery mechanism and the large variance of volatility impact on futures pricing, futures trading remains a high-stakes game.
Invesco/Galaxy announced that it would waive fees for its first six months of operation and for the first $5 billion in assets held, followed by a 0.59% fee. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, predicted on X that BlackRock would set its fee at 0.47%. In updated filings from Dec. 29, Fidelity, Galaxy/Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, and BlackRock all listed the first authorized participants that they will work with. Fidelity and WisdomTree both named Jane Street Capital, a secretive trading firm that previously employed FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. BlackRock and Galaxy/Invesco, a partnership between the crypto firm run by Mike Novogratz and the traditional investment management company, both named JPMorgan and Virtu, a market-making firm.
This difference in perspective sets the stage for a potential ideological clash within the Bitcoin community. There are now almost 10 applications with the SEC, and there is a limited amount of time before a decision must be made to either approve or deny them. January 10, 2024, is listed as the decision date for BlackRock’s application. Sciberras also points to the increased demand for block space on Bitcoin’s network due to recent innovations, such as ordinals and BRC-20 tokens, as positive developments. “In this scenario, Bitcoin’s role as a known, fair and resilient asset with a fixed supply where the rules of the game are not easily changed could become attractive,” Sciberras says.
There are currently 12 issuers vying for spot Bitcoin ETF approval, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. Understanding Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is a journey, not a destination. Stay informed, keep learning, and make sure to adapt your investment strategy as this exciting new field continues to develop. Remember, this scenario is as relentlessly pessimistic as the best-of-all-worlds discussion was shamelessly optimistic. The chances of these doom-and-gloom factors materializing are just as slim as all the pieces falling into place perfectly for a Bitcoin utopia.
Several platforms are already offering futures trading for the legacy cryptocurrency, and the launch of Bakkt is seen as a significant step forward for Bitcoin futures trading among institutional investors. For now, Bitcoin and its crypto kin are still high-risk, high-reward investment assets. They may play a part in a diversified portfolio, but only for investors who can stomach their roller-coaster-like ups and downs. Just tread lightly in the cryptocurrency field, keep an eye out for bear traps, and manage most of your nest egg in more traditional forms such as stocks, cash, or index funds.
The CME offers monthly BTC futures contracts for six months and additional quarterly contracts for each of the four upcoming quarters. CME Group also offers an additional December contract if only one is listed. Futures are a type of derivative contract that obligate two parties to exchange an asset—or a cash equivalent—at a predetermined price on a future date.
As it stands, there are 14 asset management firms, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale and VanEck, hoping to individually win approval from the U.S. And some reports are now saying it might happen soon given the frequent meetings and updated filings in recent weeks. For this week’s news episode, Jacquelyn dove back into the latest developments on spot bitcoin ETF applications in the U.S. as anticipation builds. The crypto industry has long looked at a spot Bitcoin ETF as a surefire vehicle to bring traditional investors, from retail traders to asset managers, into the volatile sector. Viewed through this lens, however, it’s hard not to see why the platform maximalism view has lately fallen out of favor. As opposed to a system defined by economic engineering, Bitcoin’s monetary maximalists appear at least united in believing that the Bitcoin economy may only ultimately persevere through our collective decision to value and protect it.
Sciberras says a bullish future for Bitcoin may depend on the sturdiness, or lack thereof, of traditional banking frameworks. “During 2014 and 2017 we saw many Bitcoin ‘forks’ proposed that split the Bitcoin community,” he says. Hard forks are changes to the underlying protocol of the blockchain network that split a cryptocurrency into two. Analysts at Blockware Solutions suggest that the 2024 bitcoin halving could propel the price to a staggering $400,000.